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Strong credit growth and rising energy prices may keep Fed rate hike risks alive, support the US Dollar Index, and leave EURUSD vulnerable to further losses.
Forex
Gold managed to bounce a bit on Friday, although it was too little to prevent a weekly decline. On the week, the metal fell 2.5%, making its second consecutive weekly decline.
EUR/USD heads into the new week at a critical technical inflection point after spending the past month holding above a major multi-year support pivot. The pair remains trapped within a well-defined July opening range, leaving traders focused on the next breakout for confirmation of the broader directional bias.
The Japanese Yen has struggled to build on recent gains despite expectations for further Bank of Japan policy tightening, but MUFG believes investors are overlooking a structural shift that could provide significant long-term support for the currency. The US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate (USD/JPY) traded close to recent cyclical.
Silver Price Forecast: XAG hits fresh YTD low, bears eye $54 breakdown
Gold remains under pressure after breaking key trend support, with $3,942 and lower Fibonacci levels becoming important as traders watch for reversal signals.
United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions fell from previous $194.2K to $186.7K
Silver prices face more selling if WTI and Brent stay bid, keeping inflation pressure and September Fed hike bets firm.
Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD slips for second straight day as Oil spike revives inflation fears
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is trading around 1.1440 after recovering from June lows near 1.1325, but Goldman Sachs believes options markets are signalling renewed downside risks for the pair. EUR/USD has remained relatively stable through July, gaining around 0.3% so far this month after falling more than 2% in.
Gold climbs as Iran war premium revives Fed hike risk
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Bulls pause below 0.8150 as momentum fades
The Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate is trading around 0.8506 after a sharp Sterling rally pushed the pair to its lowest levels since earlier this year. EUR/GBP has fallen from the 0.86 area at the start of July to a low near 0.8455 before recovering modestly.
The true test of trend is what happens in the face of counter-trend stimuli. Do bulls come in to defend the higher-low, looking at the sell-off as opportunistic?
For traders seeking one of the highest-conviction macro opportunities of 2026, the precious metals pullback may prove to be less of a warning and more of an invitation
The better-than-expected Consumer Sentiment data provided support to the American currency.
The gold market has fallen this past week, as we are sitting near the $4,000 level, which is important from a psychological point of view.
British Pound: Burnham policy hopes underpin Sterling against US Dollar – Scotiabank
This is a market that continues to see a lot of noise and concerns in general. With this, the silver market will continue to see volatile choppiness and lack of stability.
The Pound Sterling could extend its recent gains against the US dollar as a shift in UK political sentiment improves confidence in Sterling, according to UniCredit. The Italian bank says expectations that Andy Burnham will appoint a fiscally conservative Chancellor have created a potential “wind of change” for UK assets, easing.
