Market narrative
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It was a big week for the FX market, but most of that drive came from the USD/JPY pair. While the prior week ECB meeting saw Christine Lagarde take a dovish tilt, EUR/USD stuttered after a downside break of a bear flag formation.
Forex
Gold has spent six weeks trapped in a tightening range at the yearly low, with the next breakout likely to determine the Augu.
Analysts at Scotiabank expect renewed pressure on USD/CAD after its July decline, with a break below 1.4000 opening the way towards 1.3981 and the upper 1.39s. The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar exchange rate ended July near 1.4015 after falling 1.36% over the month.
Exchange Rates UK Research's latest August 2026 survey of major investment banks suggests the Pound to Euro exchange rate is trading above where most institutions believe it will settle over the medium term. With GBP/EUR currently at 1.1694, close to its highest level in more than a year, the majority of banks expect the exchange rate.
ING expects EUR/USD to remain supported around 1.1500 following the sharp Dollar selloff, although a sustained move above 1.1600 would require a further dovish repricing of US interest rates. The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) gained just over 1% in July, recovering from a monthly low near 1.1354 and reaching a high around.
MUFG says the Bank of England's hawkish hold should keep Sterling supported, but Governor Bailey's pushback against imminent rate increases limits the scope for a sustained GBP/USD rally. The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) ended July around 1.3482 after gaining 1.75% over the month and rebounding strongly from lows below.
Months of volatility suppression as market forces continued to provoke Japanese authorities were finally released with a vengeance late last week, culminating in what appears to have been a coordinated intervention episode involving Japan's Ministry of Finance, the US Treasury and potentially South Korean authorities.
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Bulls eye 0.6000 after SMA break
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Bulls defend 50-day SMA as rebound builds
Gold slides as US yields surge, keeping $4,100 out of reach
United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions fell from previous $183.9K to $182.1K
United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions: $-163.4K vs previous $183.9K
The beginning of a new month marks a good opportunity to review the seasonal patterns that have influenced the forex market over the 50+ years since the Bretton Woods system was dismantled in 1971, ushering in the modern foreign exchange market.
The initial pullback in USD/JPY was bid as buyers jumped in at the support I looked at in the post-Fed article. But then on Thursday night, right around the European open, selling began to show in USD/JPY.
Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD holds firm as USD rebounds from intervention rout
Beyond inflation: Five underappreciated drivers of Gold prices
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD consolidates above $55 as downside momentum eases
The yield of 30-year Treasuries tested levels that were last seen back in 2007.
The silver market has pulled back a bit from the $60 level to show signs of hesitation again for the week, as we are looking at the silver market with questions.
According to recent estimates, the Bank of Japan may have spent more than $50 billion to support the yen.
